Macro Economy
A collection of 15 posts
How Clear Is Vanguard’s Crystal Ball?
Vanguard’s annual economic and market outlook has just been published and will no doubt garner some interest in part because it runs to almost 60 pages—long enough to suggest that it must be right. But quantity doesn’t always equal quality or accuracy! So, if you’re going
Yield Curve Flashes Yellow
One of Wall Street’s go-to recession warning signs—the yield curve—is flashing yellow right now. The media is all over it and the headlines sure sound scary. Since I too include the yield curve on my “recession dashboard,” let’s take a closer look at what it is,
Taking Stock As We Set Off
If there were any doubts, they were squashed in September—investment markets are firmly in the bear’s grip. Not only are U.S. stocks roughly 25% lower than they were at the start of the year, but bonds are having their worst run in at least four decades.