The Independent Vanguard Adviser

Topic

Macro Economy

A collection of 5 stories

Weathering Government Shutdowns

With the U.S. government’s finances bumping up against the debt ceiling, I’m (not surprisingly) hearing from concerned investors on both sides of the political aisle asking what this means for our investments. First, we’ve been here before. And it’s important to recognized that we’ve

2022: A Most Challenging Year

I’m not going to try to sugar-coat it, 2022 was an extremely challenging year for investors—particularly conservative investors. Don’t get me wrong, aggressive investors and speculators (those “investing” in crypto, for example) took it on the chin, too. But that comes with the territory. So, let’s

Just Keep Going

We enter the new year firmly in the grips of a bear market. I’m also officially on recession watch for 2023. And yet, I’m more optimistic about the prospects for stocks and bonds than I was 12 months ago. Yes, you read that correctly. The short story behind

How Clear Is Vanguard’s Crystal Ball?

Vanguard’s annual economic and market outlook has just been published and will no doubt garner some interest in part because it runs to almost 60 pages—long enough to suggest that it must be right. But quantity doesn’t always equal quality or accuracy! So, if you’re going

Yield Curve Flashes Yellow

One of Wall Street’s go-to recession warning signs—the yield curve—is flashing yellow right now. The media is all over it and the headlines sure sound scary. Since I too include the yield curve on my “recession dashboard,” let’s take a closer look at what it is,