Executive Summary: Global Capital Cycles has staged a turnaround since its 2018 reboot. Still, it remains driven by metals and mining stocks. Improved but imperfect, the fund earns an upgrade from Sell to Hold—not a Buy, and not a top pick.
Global Capital Cycles (VGPMX) has been easy to overlook—until now. Once among Vanguard’s worst funds, it’s suddenly the firm’s best performer this year, up 32.1% through August.
Its long-term record is abysmal, but that history is largely irrelevant. Vanguard rebooted the fund in 2018, giving it a new name, a new mandate and a second chance. Since then, results have been far better.
That’s enough for me to upgrade the fund from Sell to Hold. But a Buy? Not yet. Here’s why.