Big News, Small Market Moves

Hello, and welcome to the IVA Weekly Brief for Wednesday, January 7.

There are no changes recommended for any of our Portfolios.

Well, 2026 certainly started with a bang—literally. Over the weekend, U.S. Special Forces flew into Caracas and seized Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, bringing him to New York to face trial on a range of alleged crimes. President Trump has since said the U.S. will effectively “run” the country and seek to redevelop Venezuela’s oil fields.

I’ll leave the geopolitical speculation—Is Cuba next? What about Greenland? What does this mean for China and Taiwan?—to others. That’s not my lane, and you’ve probably already read no shortage of hot takes. Instead, here’s what long-term investors should focus on.

Start with the market’s reaction to Maduro’s ouster, which was… muted. Given Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, you might have expected a sharper response in the energy markets. Yes, Energy ETF (VDE) was Vanguard’s third-best-performing fund on Monday (behind two Baillie Gifford-run funds), up 2.3% as oil company stocks moved higher. But crude oil prices barely budged, rising just 1.8%—from $57.28 a barrel on Friday to $58.32 on Monday.

Neither move is out of the ordinary. The explanation is straightforward: While Venezuela has a lot of oil in the ground—and heavy, dirty oil at that—it doesn’t produce much of it today, and traders aren’t betting that U.S. oil companies will be turning on that spigot anytime soon.

More broadly, stocks had a solid day. Total Stock Market Index (VTSAX) gained 0.7% on Monday, while Total International Stock Index (VTIZX) gained 1.0%.

Yes, I just said “long-term investors” and then cited returns for one day.

But the point isn’t the day—it’s the disconnect. Even when headlines are loud, markets don’t always react the way you might expect, or the way cable news implies they should.

And that’s the real lesson here. Last year was a noisy one, especially out of Washington. If the first week is any indication, 2026 will be more of the same. Separating signal from noise won’t be easy—it never is—but long-term investors would be wise to keep tuning out the static and sticking to the plan.

This is the practical payoff from diversification and discipline: You don’t have to trade the news to make progress toward your goals.

Our Portfolios

As this is my first Weekly Brief of the year, here are the Portfolios’ 2025 results:

The Aggressive Portfolio gained 15.6%, the Aggressive ETF Portfolio returned 17.0%, the Growth Portfolio advanced 14.6%, the Moderate Portfolio gained 14.8% and the Conservative Portfolio returned 10.7%.

This compares to a 17.1% return for Total Stock Market Index (VTSAX), a 32.2% gain for Total International Stock Index (VTIAX), and a 7.2% return for Total Bond Market Index (VBTLX). Vanguard’s most aggressive multi-index fund, Target Retirement 2070 (VSNVX), gained 21.4% in 2024, and its most conservative, LifeStrategy Income (VASIX), returned 9.4%.

It’s only been a few trading days, but our Portfolios are off to a decent start in 2026.

The Aggressive Portfolio is up 3.4%, the Aggressive ETF Portfolio is up 2.2%, the Growth Portfolio is up 2.8%, the Moderate Portfolio is up 2.3% and the Conservative Portfolio is up 1.3%.

This compares to a 1.8% return for Total Stock Market Index (VTSAX), a 2.8% gain for Total International Stock Index (VTIAX), and a 0.1% return for Total Bond Market Index (VBTLX). Vanguard’s most aggressive multi-index fund, Target Retirement 2070 (VSNVX), is up 2.0% for the year, and its most conservative, LifeStrategy Income (VASIX), is up 0.6%.

IVA Research

Since my last Weekly Brief, I shared three articles with Premium Members:

• The 2026 Hot Hands Trade Alert.
• A month-by-month review of what caught my attention throughout the year.
• An in-depth review of how markets performed in 2025.
• The December Monthly Recap.
• And a look back at how my 2025 Outlook fared.

Until my next Weekly Brief, have a safe, sound and prosperous investment future.