When it comes to financial punditry, the volume is high, but accountability is low, bordering on nonexistent. Television’s talking heads can get away with making wild predictions because no one ever punches the rewind button to check up on their calls.

And it’s worse than you think. Pundits have a perverse incentive to make wild predictions because it virtually guarantees it’ll get them their moment in the spotlight if they are right (or even close). If they are wrong, well, they’ll have another go at it next year.

I try to hold myself to a higher standard. As I’ve done for years (carrying on a tradition from my prior publication), I’m going to look back at last year’s Outlook and see what I got right and wrong.

Over the past two weeks, I’ve shared my views on where I think we’re headed in 2024, as well as a market and month-by-month review of 2023. To round out the process, here’s a look at how my 2023 Outlook fared, with quotes from my Outlook followed by my self-evaluation.

Despite gross domestic product (GDP) declining in the first two quarters of 2022, the economy did not go through a recession this past year. I don’t think we’ll be so lucky in 2023.

I’m thrilled to report that my recession forecast, along with those of most Wall Street pundits, missed the mark. As I’ve said, based on current data, the Federal Reserve has achieved the elusive soft landing for the U.S. economy, bringing inflation down while keeping growth alive.

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